Tunisia, Egypt, and Democracy in the Middle East

By now, everyone has heard of the events in Tunisia and Egypt; citizens are rising up to oppose their oppressive, dictatorial leaders.  As Mubarak makes promises for substantive strides toward democracy and leaders all over the Arab world promise not to run for re-election or dismiss members of their government, the question on the minds of people all over the world is "will these protests lead to an era of democracy in the Middle East?"

The experts have no consensus.  Some say Egypt and Tunisia are exceptions--that Ben Ali fell because Tunisia was especially susceptible to the global financial crisis and rising food prices.  During the brief time that I was in Egypt in 2009, my classmates and I noticed the corruption, cronyism, and rampant umemployment among youth.  We were told stories of friends and family members who graduated with fantastic credentials, yet were denied government jobs in favor of incompetent people with connections.  Many experts hold that the widespread corruption and unemployment led to Mubarak's (yet to be seen) downfall.

Others say that the two North African dictators are just the first in a long line of 20th century authoritarian leaders who will be deposed by popular protest.  Already, we have seen similar protests in Yemen, Syria, and threats of protests in Libya.  Even King Abdullah II of Jordan dismissed the Cabinet and promised to make changes in the Hashemite Kingdom.  These experts say that this is just the beginning; that we could be witnessing the birth of democracy in the Middle East.

Egypt I can understand, but I was very surprised to hear that King Abdullah--paranoid that protests might spread to Jordan--dismissed his cabinet.  When I was there, I saw nothing but admiration for alMalik and his family; even among the poorest citizens.  Buses in the rural areas were mini-shrines to the king.  Pictures of the royal family adorned shops, government buildings, and schools.  "Jordan First", the phrase originating from a largely successful social program was spray-painted on walls off Sharia Rainbow and in the "Refugee Camps".  My host mother in the northern Badia told me a story about how Malik Abdullah came to her small town to honor a fallen air force pilot.  After writing letters to alMalik, asking him to help their poor families, several townspeople were contacted to come to Amman.  After appearing on the appointed day at the appointed place, they were each given 300JD (a little over 450 USD when I was there).  The people loved the king and never uttered a word against him.  Hard to believe that those same citizens would rise up and demand a new leader.

Saudi Arabia?  Yemen?  Qatar?  Might these countries be next?  If so, how will the Obama administration react and how will the Arab street react to the U.S.'s reaction?

My thoughts?  It's too soon to tell.  I understand that people make a living trying to predict the future.  But there could be many different outcomes, each with different implications for the Middle East and the rest of the world.